The Current Vol 2

A Look Back at the Last Few Weeks

On August 22, 2025, President Donald Trump posted on his social platform (Truth Social) that the U.S. would launch a “major Tariff Investigation on Furniture coming into the United States,” to be completed within 50 days (mid-October) under the national security framework of Section This social media update sits on top of a formal Executive Order (Mar 1, 2025) directing a Section 232 “national security” nvestigation into timber, lumber, and derivative products (including furniture) with a 270-day deadline for the Commerce Secretary to report back (which implies a late November 2025 report due date). Since that tweet market trends have shown

• Stock Market Shift – Big import companies such as Wayfair William & Sonoma and Restoration Hardware saw stock prices drop between 4- 7% whereas domestic companies like La-Z-Boy and Ethan Allen see their stock prices rise 2-3%. – Reuters Wall Street Journal
• Commerce Department data indicates furniture import tariffs have already contributed to a 0.7% rise in home furnishing prices in July and August before the social media update.
• Retailers relying on imports such as furniture, apparel and appliances are grappling with increased cost pressures, potential inventory delays, and strategic uncertainty as the holiday season looms. Wells Fargo warned that aggressive tariffs (10–50%) across these
  imports could spoil the 2025 holiday season—expect higher prices, less variety, and fewer deals. They estimate consumers could bear 67% of tariff-related costs – The Daily Beast

What You Need to Know Now

• 10/11/25: Expected conclusion of investigation with administration focusing on 60% of all import furniture coming from China/Vietnam
• 11/1/25: Potential target date for tariff implementation that will target a broad coverage of “all” furniture imports.
• Rates continue to soften – Shippers’ behavior is shifting as Peak Season Surcharges end.
• U.S. retailers are dialing back bookings amid tariff uncertainty and a cooling macro economy
• Freight volumes have declined across most major routes, with Vietnam being a significant exception. This trend suggests a reduction in demand and may present obstacles to the implementation of planned General Rate Increases (GRIs).

Forecasting What’s Ahead & Recommended Action

• Q4 2025: If furniture tariffs are announced in late Sept/early Oct, expect a brief pull-forward spike (beat-the-tariff sailings), then normalization. Any broad tariff could also trigger routing shifts (e.g., more Mexico/LatAm origin) and blank sailings as carriers manage volatility
• In anticipation of Golden Week (October 1–8), which is typically a period of reduced shipping activity, carriers are strategically cancelling sailings. This action indicates ongoing overcapacity in the market and continued downward pressure on freight rates.
• Due to the potential for upcoming sailing shortages, we advise suppliers to submit their bookings 2-3 weeks before the ready date to ensure timely processing.
• Run SKU-level tariff scenarios for 10/25/35% on customs value (not freight), validate HTS at the 8–10-digit level, and prepare price ladders and promo reserves. Rate drop could cause tariff overlay – even the modest duty can significantly bump up landed and retail pricing. Here’s a scenario model showing how tariffs might inflate landed costs and retail price on a representative furniture SKU (assuming $500 customs value + $100 freight. Continue to look for updates from Steve Foder at CSS steve@cssbrokers.com as new information becomes available. Please email him directly if you want to join his blast weekly updates.

Tariff Rate	Tariff $ on $500	Landed Cost (incl. $100 freight	Illustrative Retail Price (1.7×)
10%	$50	$650	$1,105
25%	$125	$725	$1,232.50
35%	$175	$775	$1,317.50

The Tradewinds: Highlights of Gulfstream and Bluewater

Gulfstream continues to grow and learn with our partners at Gnosis. Meet the Gnosis Team below that are so helpful behind the scenes and are willing to go the extra mile to customize the system to best service our members. If you are not currently set up to receive a weekly report and/or not able to see your shipments in real time, please reach out to Gulfstream Operations team (jonathan@shipgulfstream.com hilary@shipgulfstream.com) or use the links below to get started!

Gnosis Intro Video: https://www.joc.com/video/bringing-a-holistic-approach-to-technology-5659206

Access the portal here: https://app.gnosisfreight.com

Brief Demo – https://guides.gnosisfreight.com/demo/cm6fi0v1o0005xo0hjk2rhvuc